Bill Pierre Ford

U.S. auto sales probably rose in December, signaling a recovery in 2010 after a year marked by the bankruptcies of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC and the fewest new vehicles delivered in almost three decades.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate may be 11.1 million cars and light trucks, according to the average estimate of eight analysts in a Bloomberg survey. That would be up from 10.3 million in December 2008 and 10.9 million in November, marking the second straight monthly gain, according to Bloomberg data.

The year may end with 10.4 million new cars and light trucks sold, the fewest since 1982, when the country had one- quarter fewer adults. Ford Motor Co. gained further market share, analysts said, building on its increasing reputation for high quality and good will for avoiding a government bailout.

“We’re looking at a slow, fragile recovery in 2010,” said Mirko Mikelic, senior portfolio manager at Fifth Third Asset Management in Grand Rapids, Michigan, which manages $19 billion in assets. “It will be a slow slog. With the wind down of brands, GM’s going to be paying the price. And Ford will benefit.”

GM, based in Detroit, is shedding Saab, Saturn, Pontiac and Hummer to concentrate on its four remaining U.S. brands: Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC.

In 1982, the U.S. had 177 million driving-age adults, 36 percent fewer than now, said Sean McAlinden, chief economist for the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan. At the time, 59 new vehicles were sold per 1,000 adults, he said, compared with 42 this year.

“That would make it a worse recession than 1980-82” and indicate significant pent-up demand, he said.

Increase Forecast

Sales in 2010 may rise 19 percent to 12.4 million because of the need for new vehicles and improving availability of consumer credit, McAlinden said. Other preliminary forecasts for industrywide sales range from Chrysler’s outlook of about 10.8 million to Ford’s 12.3 million.

Chrysler declined to elaborate on its 2010 forecast, issued last month as part of its five-year plan.

U.S. sales totaled 13.2 million in 2008, according to Autodata Corp., after averaging 16.8 million this decade through 2007.

Surging unemployment and tight credit depressed auto sales, particularly in the first half of the year, when the annual rate didn’t exceed 10 million. The tumult in the economy led to government-backed bankruptcies that produced Auburn Hills, Michigan-based Chrysler Group LLC on June 10 and General Motors Co. on July 10.

‘Clunker’ Effect

Manufacturers, dealers and investors use the sales rate to compare monthly totals by taking into account seasonal buying patterns. February’s 9.11 million pace was the year’s lowest, and the highest was August’s 14.1 million, fueled by the Transportation Department’s “cash for clunkers” program.

During the one-month effort, the U.S. contributed as much as $4,500 toward the trade-in of an older model for a more efficient new one, boosting sales in July and August.

Rising vehicle sales in November and December, without federal support, add to signs that the U.S. economy is improving.

Ford Growing

Ford, based in Dearborn, Michigan, may report a 13 percent gain, while GM may say its sales this month fell 10.6 percent, based on the average estimates of 6 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Chrysler’s sales probably fell 13.9 percent, according to the analysts.

Ford fell 3 cents to $9.96 at 10:28 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have more than quadrupled this year.

The estimates are based on daily selling rates. December had 28 selling days, 2 more than in 2008. Without the adjustment, sales comparisons will be about 8 percent higher. Tom Henderson, a GM spokesman, said he wouldn’t speculate on December’s results.

Among Japanese automakers, Toyota Motor Corp. sales gained 21 percent, Honda Motor Co.’s gained 7.8 percent, and Nissan Motor Co.’s rose 4.9 percent, according to estimates by Edmunds.com.

Toyota’s Decline

Toyota, which surpassed GM as the world’s largest automaker in 2008, experienced a 23.8 percent U.S. sales decline through November as President Akio Toyoda apologized for the company straying from its customer focus and for its biggest U.S. recall because of loose floor mats.

Toyota was probably overtaken by Germany’s Volkswagen AG last year in terms of global vehicle sales. VW’s U.S. share rose to 2.9 percent through November, up from 2.3 percent a year earlier.

Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s largest automaker, may report a 52.1 percent increase, according to Edmunds.com, a market-research firm in Santa Monica, California.

George Pipas, Ford’s chief sales analyst, said the automaker will report a full-year gain in U.S. market share in 2009 for the first time since 1995.

“It appears December will be the strongest sales month this year, except for August,” Pipas said. “That’s a nice way to close out 2009 and it’s a positive sign of higher levels of interest and buying next year.”

The following table shows estimates for car and light-truck sales in the U.S. Estimates for companies are a percentage change from December 2008. Forecasts for the seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, are in millions of vehicles.

The estimates are based on daily selling rates. December had 28 selling days, 2 more than in 2008.

The new Ford Transit Connect has a strange name, a compact European delivery van appearance and a ceiling thats so tall, someone sitting in the drivers seat might only reach it with fingertips.

But these oddities are nearly endearing in one of the smartest and most practical vehicles for anyone — including a small business owner, camping enthusiast or trend-eschewing individualist — looking for something different to drive.

The front-wheel drive Transit Connect has been sold in 55 countries by Ford Motor Co. but is only coming to the States this model year as something of an experiment in downsized commercial vans.

Buyers wont find luxury accouterments. But they will get at least double the cargo room of other small, boxy, four-cylinder-powered vehicles that frequently do duty as small business vehicles, such as the Scion xB and Chevrolet HHR panel wagon.

Buyers also find on the Transit Connect window sticker a government rating of 22 miles per gallon in city driving and 25 mpg on the highway, which is about double that for a traditional, large, Ford delivery van.

Best of all, the Transit Connect is affordable with a starting

manufacturers suggested retail price, including destination charge, of $21,830 for a base, five-passenger model with 136-horsepower, four-cylinder engine and automatic transmission.

A cargo version of the Transit Connect, with no rear seats, has a starting retail price of $21,475.

There arent directly comparable competitors here.

For example, the 2010 Scion xB comes from Japan and has a starting retail price of $16,420, while Chevys American-bred HHR panel wagon has a starting price of $19,350. But neither has anywhere near the 135.3 cubic feet of cargo room behind the front seats that the Transit Connect offers.

In fact, even large sport utility vehicles dont have this much cargo space. The Chevy Tahoe tops out at 108.9 cubic feet with third row seats removed and second row folded.

The Transit Connect has van-like side doors for the second row of seats that slide open and closed. So, it might compare with small passenger vans like the 2010 Mazda5 that starts at $18,745. But the six-passenger Mazda5 with three rows of seats and 5-foot-3-inch height seems conventional vis-a-vis the 6-foot-6-inch-tall Transit Connect.

The Transit Connect is based on a special version of the platform of the Ford Fiesta small car thats sold in Europe, and it is used for many commercial purposes overseas, including delivery vans and ambulances.

But in the US, the possibilities are endless among business owners looking to reduce gasoline use, camping fans who want to downsize, even drivers suffering from disabilities who need to carry wheelchairs and medical equipment.

Part of the appeal of this new vehicle is how easy it is to get in and out. At 5 feet 4, I just turned and sat onto the drivers seat cushion. Theres no climb up or dropping down into a low-riding car seat. The tester was a passenger van version with seats for five, so I and my passengers rode with decent views out front and to the side.

The two cargo-style doors at the back meant I didnt have one large window to look out of at the back, however. So I was glad to have the optional reverse parking sensors back there to help me know when I got too close to obstacles while I was backing up.

Seats, dashboard arrangement and door trim were all no-nonsense and functional in the test Transit Connect. There was nothing fancy, and the center console area didnt even have covered storage.

I noticed how tall the side windows are, and I had to open the side windows to reach out and manually wipe away condensation that had formed overnight on the outside mirror and stationary part of the side windows.

Theres just one engine — a hardworking, 2-liter, double overhead cam, Duratec four cylinder generating 136 horsepower and 128 foot-pounds of torque at 4,750 rpm. Even when the vehicle was empty, the Transit Connect didnt rocket around town. Rather, it moved with a hint of spunk. With more people and cargo, the vehicles spunk was replaced with a more purposeful personality.

I readily heard the engine at work as well as road noises from the 15-inch tires on pavement. Sometimes, the sounds seemed to reverberate throughout the cavernous interior, which was a unique experience.

But I loved the low load floor at the back of the Transit Connect, not to mention how the two rear doors were hinged so they could swing all the way back and stay against the sides of the vehicle and out of the way. This is so much nicer than ducking under a tailgate door or walking around a single, side-opening rear cargo door.

The impressively tall ceiling meant even a 6-footer could darn near stand up inside in the cargo area, and the utilitarian floor material makes for easy cleanup.

I didnt feel as if I had the latest technology as I drove the Transit Connect. The ride was adequate but not refined. For example, the rear suspension uses uncomplicated leaf springs and

solid axle. And there didnt seem to be a lot of sound insulation as wind noise came on noticeably when the Transit Connect hit highway speeds.

Unusual options complete the package. For $1,395, for example, a

buyer can add an on-board computer that monitors a drivers speed, idle time and vehicle location — things a business owner might want to track.